That, perhaps, is the greater concern. The FAA confirmed to our inquiry that their regulations “don’t address this issue,” while the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) defines on-time arrivals as being within 15 minutes of the published arrival time. The government agency publishes those stats monthly as part of its Air Travel Consumer Report, with the goal of incentivizing airlines to set more realistic schedules.
That’s exactly what aroused Koepert’s suspicions. His initial research suggested that the practice started when Congress implemented the On-Time Disclosure Rule in 1987, requiring carriers to disclose their performance. “Research shows that in the first five years of this rule, airlines increased their scheduled flight times by 10 percent, which increased their on-time arrival performance by 20 percent in that time frame,” he says, noting his research showed that in the last 30 years, it’s “still getting worse.”
One part of the reason: airlines can be, and have been, fined for extended tarmac delays, as Kerry Tan, as Loyola University Maryland associate professor of economics, specializing in the airline industry, explains. Indeed, in recent years, United, American, and Southwest have each been fined at least $1 million for those wait times.
However, increasing the cushioning can result in other problems. “Schedule padding reduces the turnaround time for an airline and therefore could restrict the maximum number of flights per day,” Tan says. “Ultimately, this may mean that an aircraft flies fewer flights a day, which means that airlines are giving up the opportunity to generate more revenue. In other words, airlines are trading revenue for improved on-time performance.”
Extending arrival times doesn’t just affect the airlines, but the airport ground resources as well. “In many cases, at congested airports, the gate and the ground crew are not ready to support the aircraft when it arrives before its scheduled arrival time,” explains Ahmed Abdelghany, associate dean of research at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. That’s why he says it’s such a struggle to “find the sweet spot between cost and schedule reliability.”
Kendall notes that most of the adjustments are made in “small amounts,” but Koebert says it’s enough to make a difference. “Travel is already stressful enough for many people, and being even a few minutes off schedule can add to that stress,” he says.
Tan says his research has shown that while there has been a spike in the number of flights that have been arriving early, actual flight times have not changed significantly. “As a passenger, this does not concern me,” he says. “Rather, I am always pleased when I get to my destination airport or connecting hub earlier than expected.” Abdelghany agrees that it’s not at the point where travelers should worry. “This is beyond the control of passengers,” he says.
But perhaps there is one slight adjustment travelers can make, according to Kopert: “You may want to ask anyone picking you up from the airport to arrive 5 to 10 minutes earlier than they otherwise would have.”
